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Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts

Thursday

Super Hard


Every time I see this picture. I think super hard. I dream that my sleepless nights and my smile and my passion for wanting to do something good in this world is going to pay off. I hope that all the countless opportunities I don’t have because of my circumstance aren’t going to matter. That maybe one day I can have a happy home with a special someone and live my life creating and shaping this world. I want to give it hope. Give a future little one hope.

He gives me so much hope. More hope and joy than I ever express to him, to anyone. And all I think is “ Hey old chap, maybe I’m not good enough. Maybe I’m not trying enough.” but for fucking sake’s it’s so hard to try so hard all the time and see so little of it become anything but I still think. I don’t give up that easy.

Frenchtheory

Journal de l'Hypertexte

Hypertextopia

Tuesday

Web evangelists

Internet missionaries can be terribly annoying.

Part of the reason—especially to the print dinosaurs among us—is that they're so correct. Broken old media businesses will change or die. Younger audiences will not just read or watch; they must tweet, blog, and update their status, preferably all at once. More broadly, digital networks are reshaping culture, economics, and politics. That's beyond debate. Like most zealots, however, the Web evangelists often seem self-righteous and oblivious to ambiguity.

This trait threatens to limit their appeal even to the already converted.

Thursday

Individual man

It is, I claim, nonsense to say that it does not matter which individual man acted as the nucleus for the change. It is precisely this that makes history unpredictable into the future.



Download ebooks on http://www.frenchtheory.com/ - See that post with different algorithms in metabole - See the journal French Metablog with today different posts-Enter Jean-Philippe Pastor


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Monday

Future of Rome

In the famous lines of Book VI of Aeneid, the spirit of Anchises shows to his son the future of Rome:

"Romans, these are your arts: to bear dominion over the nations, to impose peace, to spare the conquered and subdue the proud."

In 23 Virgil read the second and the fourth books to Augustus personally - the emperor had complained a few years earlier that he had not seen any of the text. When Augustus was returning from Samos after the winter of 20, he met the poet in Athens. Virgil accompanied the emperor to Megara and then to Italy. "Fortune assists the bold," Virgil once said. However, the journey turned out to be fatal and Virgil died of a fever contracted on his visit to Greece. He had instructed his executor Varius to destroy the manuscript of The Aeneid, but Augustus ordered Varius to ignore this request, and the poem was published.

Virgil was buried near Naples but there are doubts that the so-called Tomb of Virgil in the area is authentic. However, it soon became a place of pilgrimage.


Download ebooks on http://www.frenchtheory.com/ - See that post with different algorithms in metabole - See the journal French Metablog with today different posts-Enter Hypertextopia-PHONEREADER Library -- Jean-Philippe Pastor

Wednesday

Predicted Golden age according to Virgil


In his fourth eclogue, the way Virgil treats the linear motion, or flow, of time further suggests the inevitabilityof the predicted Golden Age.


In particular, the shifts between present and future tenses of verbs create this impression. The birth of the Child under Virgo is announced in present tense:

“iam noua progenies caelo demittitur alto”.

The effects of the new age are foretold in the future tense: “occident et serpens,” and “omnis feret omnia tellus”. However, the Golden Age is not merely in the future: “Ultima Cumaei venit iam carminis aetas”. The prophetic poem leaves no question about the approach of the new age; there are no pre-requisite conditions.


The age is both here now and will inevitably continue to fully materialize in the future.


Download ebooks on http://www.frenchtheory.com/ - See that post with different algorithms in metabole - See the journal French Metablog with today different posts-Enter Hypertextopia-PHONEREADER Library -- Jean-Philippe Pastor



Saturday

What is a chain of events according to Walter Benjamin



Where we see the appearance of a chain of events, Walter Benjamin sees one single catastrophe, which unceasingly piles rubble on top of rubble and hurls it before his feet.


He would like to pause for a moment so fair [verweilen: a reference to Goethe’s Faust], to awaken the dead and to piece together what has been smashed. But a storm is blowing from Paradise, it has caught itself up in his wings and is so strong that the Angel can no longer close them. The storm drives him irresistibly into the future, to which his back is turned, while the rubble-heap before him grows sky-high.

Blowing from Paradise. That which we call progress, is this storm.


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Sunday

Slow writing time


Those who know my work with digital media may be surprised to read that I largely support this remark by Mark Bauerlein in his article Online Literacy Is a Lesser Kind: Slow reading counterbalances Web skimming in the Chronicle of Higher Education (19 Sept 08):


---given the tidal wave of technology in young people's lives, let's frame a number of classrooms and courses as slow-reading (and slow-writing) spaces. Digital technology has become an imperial force, and it should meet more antagonists. Educators must keep a portion of the undergraduate experience disconnected, unplugged, and logged off. Pencils, blackboards, and books are no longer the primary instruments of learning, true, but they still play a critical role in the formation of intelligence, as countermeasures to information-age mores. That is a new mission for educators parallel to the mad rush to digitize learning, one that may seem reactionary and retrograde, but in fact strives to keep students' minds open and literacy broad. Students need to decelerate, and they can't do it by themselves, especially if every inch of the campus is on the grid.


I don't agree with restraining the digitizing of classrooms, which Bauerlein also calls for, but I do agree with ensuring there's a mix of learning spaces available. I also think that teachers should have the imagination to sometimes teach outside of the classroom altogether. In my own case, I teach mostly online and am constantly struggling with ways to bring that slower and more physical engagement into the learning experience.


Most of Bauerlain's approach is the same-old same-old but I do think we must pay attention to the need for slow spaces both in teaching and in life. Slowness is certainly a vital element of transliteracy.


Thanks to Mez at Facebook for the link to Bauerlain's article.
x-post from http://travelsinvirtuality.typepad.com/suethomas/2008/09/slow-teaching.html
Posted by Sue Thomas



Download ebooks on http://www.frenchtheory.com/ - See that post with different algorithms in metabole - See the journal French Metablog with today different posts -
PHONEREADER Library - - Jean-Philippe Pastor

Saturday

Literature in the digital age


Can intelligent literature survive in the digital age?

Is the paper-and-ink book heading the way of the papyrus scroll?

Can serious literature survive in the brave new world of web downloads, e-books and ever-shortening attention spans?


John Walsh introduces this special section


Linda Brownlee
John Walsh says: "The callowness of the e-book makes you weep"
More pictures
Related Articles
Read them and weep: We take to the streets to uncover Britain's book habits
The next chapter: Who'll be the bestsellers of tomorrow?
James Patterson: 'Publishers are lost in the Middle Ages'

Look at this chap sitting outside the Caffè Uno at Paddington station. He is reading For Whom the Bell Tolls with slightly exaggerated attention. He has a Uniball pen close to hand, for making shrewd marginal comments. He holds the book up before his face, and his chin juts slightly, as if the fall of Hemingway's lapidary prose were giving him some caffeine boost of vicarious heroism. Behold, his whole posture seems to say, at least someone around here has a brain.


Check out the woman on the Tube reading Sadie Jones's 1940s-set The Outcast. She sits quite still and unself-conscious, lost in the narrative, her spine upright as a schoolmarm's, her head bowed, her hands cradling the book on her lap, unintentionally mirroring the famous 1955 picture of Marilyn Monroe reading Ulysses. And she is reading the hardback version of Ms Jones's novel. That puts her in a minuscule percentage of British people prepared to shell out £17.99 for a new cloth-bound book, rather than wait for the paperback. But can it be that all these readers – the coffee-shop man, the Tube schoolmarm, Marilyn Monroe – represent a doomed species? Has the actual business of reading a book, of digesting a whole text of 70,000 words or more, become too much for the human race?


A transatlantic debate is currently raging about whether a decade of staring at computer screens, sending emails and text messages, and having our research needs serviced instantly by Google and Wikipedia, has taken a terrible toll on our attention, until our brains have been reconfigurated and can no longer adjust the tempo of our mental word-processing to let us read a book all the way through.
An important contribution to the debate was Nicholas Carr's Atlantic Monthly article "Is Google Making us Stupid?", in which he reports that he can no longer connect with long articles or books the way he used to; the intensity of focus and concentration that used to see him "immersed" in connecting sentences has dissipated. And the villain to whom blame can be attributed is the internet.


"As the media theorist Marshall McLuhan pointed out in the 1960s," writes Carr, "media are not just passive channels of information. They supply the stuff of thought, but they also shape the process of thought. And what the Net seems to be doing is chipping away my capacity for concentration and contemplation. My mind now expects to take in information the way the Net distributes it: in a swiftly moving stream of particles. Once I was a scuba diver in the sea of words. Now I zip along the surface like a guy on a Jet Ski."


Carr quotes a research programme that monitored the behaviour of researchers visiting information sources. Most of the researchers, it found, hopped incontinently from site to site, never staying longer than a few paragraphs, apparently unable to sustain interest in one text. The report's authors coined a splendid phrase: "...there are signs that new forms of 'reading' are emerging, as users 'power browse' horizontally through titles, contents pages and abstracts, going for quick wins. It almost seems that they go online to avoid reading in the traditional sense."


Power browsing! But what if our loss of focus in sustained reading is more than mere impatience with accessing information? It seems that we may be losing the capacity of "settling into" a book, of immersing ourselves in a plot or – more importantly – in the stream of somebody else's thoughts, in a way that readers (and writers) once took for granted.
In the days of the Enlightenment, when few books were published and people read for amusement in their leisure hours, the speed of thought, as expressed in books, could afford to be slow, proceeding from point to point in Augustanly balanced steps. Victorian prose substituted orotundity for harmony: readers would settle in for long evenings letting Barchester Towers or Our Mutual Friend wash over them. This was the period when, say, William Gladstone could tell friends, with every expectation of empathy, that he had stayed up all night to read The Woman in White.


In this century, 150 years later, it seems that our attention span has shortened alarmingly. The average-length novel is too much of a stretch for the time-challenged, multi-tasking, BlackBerry-prodding "entertainment consumer" to contemplate reading, let alone the 700-page biography of VS Naipaul or Edith Wharton. Not because of the size of books, but because of the thought processes they contain.


In 1994, an American academic called Sven Birkerts published a seminal study, "The Gutenberg Elegies: the Fate of Reading in an Electronic Age". Before plunging into the page vs screen debate, he recalled his experience of teaching a course on "the American short story" to a class of undergraduates. They tackled Henry James's story "Brooksmith", and hated it. Was it, asked Birkerts, the language, the style, the syntax? All of those, said the students. It turned out they were defeated by everything that James was trying to communicate. The narrative river of thoughts wasn't one on which they could sail. The subtle moral distinctions between characters, the importance of their choices in the society through which they moved – it wasn't just that the students found such things old-fashioned; they couldn't grasp them at all.


Birkerts found that, as watchers of TV and videos, "they had difficulty slowing down enough to concentrate on prose of any density; they had problems with what they thought of as archaic diction, with allusions, with vocabulary that seemed 'pretentious'; they were especially uncomfortable with indirect or interior passages, indeed with any deviations from straight plot; and they were put off by an ironic tone, because it flaunted superiority and made them feel they were missing something." It dawned on Birkerts that a whole generation of young American readers were becoming gradually decoupled from the whole culture of the written word.
Are we similarly affected, in Britain, in the early 21st century?
It seems we are. We haven't enough time to read as we used to. We have less and less inclination to tackle the kind of "classics" (Don Quixote, Bleak House, Moby Dick, In Search of Lost Time) that teenage readers once confidently approached. We'd love to be au courant with the modern novel, but we feel suspicious of the extravagant claims made by reviewers and prize judges: does Joseph O'Neill's Netherland really "deserve to be ranked with the best of Updike and Fitzgerald" (The Observer)? Was Stef Penney's first novel, The Tenderness of Wolves, which won the Costa Book of the Year, really the finest book in any category to be published in 2006?


And we buy fewer and fewer works of serious fiction. Twenty-five years ago, when the Amis-Barnes-Rushdie generation was getting under way, readers seemed to have no problem ' being steered towards experimental, inward-looking, linguistically challenging fiction. Flaubert's Parrot sold well, despite its metafictional games with biography, as did Amis's Money, despite its torrentially exhausting Amer-English prose style. Graham Swift's Waterland, now on school English syllabuses, flew out of bookshops in its Picador paperback livery, as did One Hundred Years of Solitude and Midnight's Children.


Now, many serious writers complain, challenging fiction doesn't appeal; "difficult" novels don't sell. Adam Mars-Jones's massive, and beautifully-written novel Pilcrow, published earlier this year, sold only a few hundred copies, and there have been several similar casualties. Although, traditionally, every Booker winner invariably becomes a world bestseller, the 2008 winner, Anne Enright's The Gathering, made the briefest appearance in the top 10 before disappearing. It had a narrative of sorts, but was broken-backed in structure and its strength was the narrator's wry, funny, piss-taking tone – exactly the kind of thing that Prof Birkerts' students hated in Henry James.


To sell now, books evidently need to be big on plot and incident, short on interior monologue – the sort of titles that the Richard & Judy Book Club strenuously promotes. "Most literary programmes, which are on late at night and concerned with 'literature', intimidate lots of people," said Judy Finnegan last year. "For some, that a book has been Booker-nominated is actually a turn-off." Can this, then, be the future of reading: an increasing number of low-brow, plot-driven works will flood the market, consigning works of literary merit to a watery grave, while the low-brows vie with each other for the attention of readers so badly affected by the moving stream of internet info-processing, that they can no longer focus their attention for longer than a few pages?


It seems oddly coincidental that the e-book is coming into our reading lives around now. With its hand-tooled leather binding, its don't-be-scared page dimensions (two-thirds the size of a standard paperback), its flexible typeface and typesize formats, and the astounding capacity of its memory (it can store up to 160 standard-size titles), it is user-friendly, glossy, rather pretty in its ingénue novelty. But its callowness makes you weep.


The instructions tell you, "One battery charge is equal to 6,800 page turns (that's enough to read War and Peace five times over on a single charge!)" Yeah, right. But it's not going to happen on the Sony Reader. Nobody is ever going to read Tolstoy on this fatuous device. It's an electronic simulation of a page, but it'll never convince you it's a book, to be read by your sentient eyes and brain. It doesn't have the solidity, the pages, the tactile companionship of a book. You'll never know where you are in the story, or how much of it is left. You won't have the cover artwork, to steal inside your head and become a lifelong reminder of the book it encased.
And you can't turn the pages. I spent half an hour reading Agatha Christie's The Murder of Roger Ackroyd (the first book to be installed) with my fingers itching to turn a page; "turn" one electronically, and the screen goes blank before the next page is displayed. It's a nasty moment, the screen going blank and interrupting your train of thought; but it's a good metaphor for the blankness to which our minds are tending, as we gradually lose the ability to interpret the old world of sequential thoughts in the new blizzard of information retrieval.


What's the word? Eight experts predict the future
The agent : Clare Alexander
"I've been an agent for 10 years and was a publisher for 25 years before that. Digitisation has had both an enormous impact on my job and, at the same time, no impact at all.
"The impact is that I now spend an enormous amount of time in negotiations with publishers getting ready for the digital explosion they perceive is about to happen.
"Print on demand is a new technology which, to my mind, is far more important than the e-book. It means that, effectively a book never goes out of print – and the author never gets their rights back from the publisher, even if the publisher is no longer promoting it. It means there is no opportunity for a new publisher to give a book a new lease of life.


"Another big digital issue is that publishers are now selling themselves to authors by saying that they can police their work, and stop them being ripped off [by pirating]. But nobody wants a publisher who's a policeman – you want a publisher who can market your book.
"Part of this new policing mentality is that publishers are becoming more risk-averse – children's book authors, for example, are being asked to sign contracts agreeing to 'appropriate conduct' in their private lives. There's also censorship: Jacqueline Wilson had the word 'twat' in one of her books changed to 'twit'.


As a result, I'm spending much more time talking to publishers about legal issues and far less time on creativity. There's also the other side of the digital revolution – that original ideas filter through to print from the internet. Yes, occasionally a blog becomes a book – about sex, usually – and the really original ideas percolate through, but most stuff online is crap!
"I don't believe the publishing industry will have an 'iPod moment'. People say that the new generation isn't interested in reading books, but they forget that this is the generation that grew up reading Harry Potter.
Clare Alexander is a literary agent at Aitken Alexander Associates Ltd, whose clients include VS Naipaul, Mark Haddon, Sarah Dunant, Germaine Greer, Colin Thubron and Penny Vincenzi
The new-media lecturer: Sue Thomas
"The aim of my course is to produce 'transliterate' writers – ie, literate across many different kinds of media. When we think 'literacy' we think about print and transliteracy is about shaking off that domination of print which has, in a sense, I think, been a distraction.
"The internet has caused us to rethink what we mean by literacy: the [traditional] idea of literacy implies that before print people were illiterate – but, in fact, people simply were literate in many other things, such as oral and visual culture.
"One of the writers from my course is Alison Norrington, a chick-lit author: she learnt how to take her stories beyond the book on a blog, on Facebook, on Twitter, by making little movies, by sending her heroine into Second Life. Another is Christine Wilkes, who has a filmmaking background and wrote an interactive memoir using design and programming. You don't need to be able to read and write much to tell a story.


"Will books exist in 50 years? Definitely, but they will also be just one of the many ways we experience art. I feel quite cynical about the cloak of preciousness that's been woven around the novel: it's such a recent medium – we've only had it a few hundred years and yet you often hear people say, 'We've always had novels.' No we have not!"
Sue Thomas teaches the world's only MA in creative writing and new media at the Institute of Creative Technology at De Montfort University
The author: Tracy Chevalier
"Digitalisation comes up at every Society of Authors meeting. It's an anxiety-filled discussion: how's it going to affect contracts; what percentage of royalties should be put on downloads; pirating; Google scanning all the books in the world to put them online; Amazon's 'search inside the book'.
"The death knell for the novel has been sounding for years. An American study in 2004 found that only 49 per cent of adults there read even one book that year, so the good thing about the internet is that there's a lot of reading going on online.
"Younger people are more adventurous in the way they take in information and not so emotionally wedded to the book as older people. The music industry has paved the way in terms of expectations of how we receive information and it'snatural that our industry will have its iPod moment.
"I don't know whether [new technology] will change how I write a book. Some authors will, some I know are appalled at the idea. I think it's more a matter of broadening out the types of books that are written – seeing these new forms as another genre. We've got the literary novel, crime, romance, westerns, chick lit, and I think the e-novel will become just another genre and it'll bring the younger generation in."
Tracy Chevalier is the author of novels including 'The Girl With the Pearl Earring'. She chairs the Society of Authors
The Google guy: Santiago de la Mora
"There are two strands to Google Book Search. One is a collaboration with publishers to showcase their books online, though it is important to explain that users cannot see a whole book on screen (however they can do keyword searches on the full text).
"The other strand is a collaboration with libraries, where we scan and upload their books – the out-of-copyright ones. These books can then be viewed in their entirety online.
"Does Google Book Search symbolise the death of the [printed] book? On the contrary, it gives books more visibility and makes it easier for people to buy them, or to know they exist in libraries. Now they can be read by anyone, anywhere. I'm originally from Columbia: I know what I grew up with and that the biggest barrier in life is no access to information. So from a personal viewpoint, it's a beautiful project."
Santiago de la Mora heads Google Book Search's European partnerships
The librarian: Richard Ovenden
"The Bodleian is one of the oldest libraries in the UK – over 400 years old – but we were the first to start doing serious digitisation, in 1994, and the first UK library to partner with Google Book Search, four years ago.
"Hundreds of thousands of cultural objects from our rich collection can now be viewed, free of charge, online – from medieval manuscripts to 19th-century industrial catalogues. These are really important tools for scholars and having them online not only makes access easier but also helps reduce wear and tear.

"Our reading rooms are still as busy as ever: the most high-quality digitisation does not replace the power of seeing the original artefact. However, people are now more aware of what we've got: a recent report identified a generation that felt that if something wasn't online it didn't exist. So if you digitise things, it does exist to that generation.
"As for reading for pleasure on screen... when you want to read a good book on the bus, in bed or at work, it's a lot easier with a book made of paper and tucked under your arm.
"I took my nine-year-old daughter to see A Winter's Tale at the Globe recently and as soon as we got home she said 'Can we read the play, Dad?' There are dozens of versions online but I just went to the shelf, pulled out a copy, and we sat on the sofa and read it together."
Richard Ovenden is Keeper of Special Collections at the University of Oxford's Bodleian Library
The publisher: Jeremy Ettinghausen
"Penguin is the publisher that invented the paperback: innovation is in our DNA. We were early bloggers, the first publisher with a podcast; our Blog a Penguin Classic project won us an award. We have 5,000 friends on Facebook, we're on Twitter, and were the first to go into Second Life, where we took William Gibson, the writer who invented the word 'cyberspace'.
"We don't believe books will disappear – 99 per cent of our revenue still comes from ink on paper - but the way people read will change.
"People have shorter attention spans – a website has about three seconds to capture their attention. As a result we are spending time learning from what Nike, Sony, Xbox, YouTube do – we're competing for people's entertainment time, particularly with a young audience. One of our most successful new projects is Spinebreakers, our website for teenagers. In the past it's been hard to talk to teens – so we gave them a platform where they could talk to each other about books.


"People no longer want to be passive – they want to interact and share. Another project was our 'wiki novel', A Million Penguins, written by the public. It got 11,000 edits in five weeks, though it was more interesting as a social experiment than a valid work of fiction.
"With 'Telling Stories', we teamed authors up with video-game designers to tell stories. There was a Google Map story, where you could follow the character's story around the UK. Another story, by Nicci French, was written live so viewers could see the words appear as they were typed.
"Our job is to get the work of our authors into as many people's hands as possible – format is less important."
Jeremy Ettinghausen is digital publisher at Penguin, the only publisher to be nominated for awards at this year's New Media Age Effectiveness Awards
The digital convert: Chris Meade
"I used to be director of Booktrust [which promotes books and reading] and the Poetry Society, so I've spent my life promoting books and reading. Yet there was a huge reaction to my move [to a charity investigating the potential of new media]: people felt I was deserting literature and books – but I think it depends how you define a book. If a book is a container of culture or knowledge, then our culture has been moving from the printed word to the moving screen for a long time.
"When I started my career it was all about the printed word, but I see these changes as exciting and a new creative opportunity for writers – and given that we've spent so long asking how can new voices be heard, it's great that now everyone can put their work out there rather than letting it gather dust under the bed. It is also an opportunity for writers to take control and manage their affairs themselves.
"As for readers – reading has always been a creative activity, but online the reader plays an even more creative role in interaction.
"Could you compare a blog or a story told via Twitter to Dickens? Well, Dickens wrote in soap opera-like episodes. It's always easier to decide where the cultural action has been, but hard to spot it at the time. These things are happening and we need to adjust."
Chris Meads is director of if:book, a charity exploring the creative potential of new media for writers and readers that is part of the organisation The Future of the Book
The teacher: Andrew Cowan
"Is the world of books changing? I honestly have no sense of that at all. As a student 20 years ago, I did the MA that I now teach in prose fiction and I see no change in the approach and ambitions of my own students to that of me and my peers back then.
"The touchstone authors my students, mainly in their twenties, are referencing are still the traditional ones. It's Nabakov, Joyce, Austen.
"Their interest is in the books reviewed in the broadsheets and the ones that win the Booker. Their ambition is to be on sale in high-street bookshops and published in book form by a mainstream publisher. That is, to them, a badge, because it measures the value of their writing against the writing they admire.


"Ahead of this interview, I talked to them about digitisation and not one of them had heard of Twitter, and they were all hostile to the idea of e-books.
"They're not immersed in digital fiction, either – some have been published online, but feel it's second-best; they're concerned about the lack of editorial control on the Net and only pursue it because there is a dearth of [print] outlets for short stories.
"None of them keeps a blog, though one admitted sheepishly that she'd started one, and the others were all smirking about it. This is the new generation of writers."
Andrew Cowan is an author and senior lecturer in creative writing at UEA. His novels include, 'Pig', 'What I Know' and 'Common Ground'


Interviews by Kate Burt
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Friday

Predict future

The best way to predict the future is to create it.

Peter Drucker

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Wednesday

Science of prediction

The science of prediction has a spotty past.

Abundant tales show the folly of attempting to foresee how one or another invention might fare in daily life. "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax," said the eminent British scientist, William Thomson. In 1946, Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th Century Fox, took a dim view of television's future. "People will soon get tired to staring at a plywood box every night," he predicted. President Rutherford B. Hayes said of Bell's telephone: "That's an amazing invention but who would ever want to use one of them?" Concurring with that sentiment, a Western Union memo commented: "This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications."

Others took an overly optimistic view of technologies that were emerging in their day. A vacuum cleaner manufacturer predicted in 1955: "Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably become a reality within 10 years." A writer for the Brooklyn Eagle predicted in 1900 that "mail will be delivered to homes in pneumatic tubes." Futuristic scenarios conceived in the 1950s saw masses of people commuting to work in helicopters. On the other hand, there were many important inventions that no one foresaw: microwave ovens, Velcro, TV dinners, laser surgery, air bags, the Internet.

Knowing the future can be valuable if a person is able to position himself or invest his money to take advantage of an emerging trend. Stock-market advisers make a living from keeping abreast of the latest product developments in their area. Thousands of investors anxiously await each month's issue of the Gilder Technology Report. Its web site is jammed when the report is first posted on the Internet. Stock prices quickly shoot up when Gilder makes favorable comments about a technology or a company with products utilizing it. Gilder's own following virtually ensures that. But, of course, the first investors with this information reap the biggest rewards; investment news is soon discounted.

In the mid 19th century, a group of intellectuals clustered around Ralph Waldo Emerson were inspired by the thought that American culture would soon equal or surpass European culture. No one embraced this idea more enthusiastically than Walt Whitman, the poet, who wrote in Democratic Vistas: "I, now, for one, promulge, announcing a native expression-spirit .. for these States ... different from others, more expansive, more rich and free, to be evidenced by original authors and poets to come, by American personalities ... and by native superber tableaux and growths of language, songs, operas, orations, lectures, architecture - and by a sublime and serious Religious Democracy sternly taking command ... and from its own interior and vital principles, reconstructing, democratizing society." What actually came, when American culture triumphed a century later, was popular culture - films rather than operas, rock lyrics rather than poems, vaudeville, cartoons, sitcoms, and other unserious works. Few professed to be creating expressions of democratic culture. Except in the Soviet Union, that kind of thinking was out of date. Whitman could not have anticipated the impact of new communication technologies upon cultural expression.

The most sweeping kinds of prediction have been associated with religion. From time to time religious prophets have appeared to announce that the world would shortly end. William Miller brought thousands of his followers to the hill tops of Massachusetts and New York state to await that event, expected to occur within a year after March 21, 1843. When this period of time had lapsed and all seemed normal, Miller rescheduled the apocalyptic date for October 22, 1844. Its failure to occur was dubbed "the great disappointment". The Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, early Christians, Branch Davidians, Heaven's Gate cult, and others have had similar expectations; yet, to date, the world as we have known it through history remains largely intact. It is therefore conceded that attempts to predict ends of the world or any larger course of events will and should be met with considerable skepticism.

In 30 B.C., right after Octavian defeated Antony and Cleopatra at the battle of Actium to become undisputed ruler of the Roman empire, an historian might have made several predictions. First, recognizing that a series of warlords (sometimes in partnership) had ruled Roman society for more than a half century, he might have foreseen that the relatively inexperienced Octavian, Julius Caesar's nephew, would eventually lose out to someone else in a power struggle. He might have foreseen that the raging tensions between rich and poor would tear Roman society apart or, perhaps, be resolved in the Senate. None of these things happened. Octavian had unexpected political and administrative skills which allowed him to consolidate power in himself and found Rome's first imperial dynasty. Dynasties of this type lasted in the West until the 5th century A.D. and, in the East, until the 15th century A.D.

The same historian, looking at Rome's position in the world, might have made several other predictions. Recalling that the Persians had conquered the Medes and Babylonians, and that Alexander the Great of Macedon had conquered Persia, and that Rome had conquered the remnants of the Seleucid, Ptolemaic, and Macedonian Greek empires, he might pessimistically have expected that some new political empire would conquer Rome's, perhaps the fierce Parthians to the east. Or, taking a more optimistic view, he might have expected that Rome would conquer the Parthian empire. Neither happened. Rome continued to withstand the Parthians despite centuries of warfare. The Parthians, succeeded by the Sasanid Persians, likewise staved off defeat at the hands of the Romans. Recalling Julius Caesar's successful prosecution of the Gallic wars, this historian might also have expected the Roman empire to expand into barbarian territories to the north and east. This possibility was only partially fulfilled. The Romans did conquer much of Britain and Rumania; however, their attempt to expand eastward into Germany was frustrated when Germanic tribes led by Hermann decimated three Roman legions in a battle fought in 9 A.D. Octavian, now Augustus Caesar, subsequently fixed his empire's eastern boundary at the Danube river.

Rome's ultimate fate was completely off this historian's radar screen. Despite Hermann's victory, it would have been most unlikely that Germanic or other nomadic tribes could overrun the western Roman empire, sack Rome, and establish petty kingdoms throughout western Europe while Roman government would last in the eastern provinces for another thousand years. Even less likely would have been that a religious prophet from Galilee, condemned by action of a Roman proconsul in Judaea and executed for blasphemy sixty years later, would come to be worshiped as "Son of God"; and that his cult, after centuries of persecution, would first claim a sizable share of Rome's population and then become Rome's state religion; and that the new religion of Christianity would provide the cultural matrix for post-Roman society, converting Rome's nomadic conquerors, and then spread into lands throughout the earth. World religion as a successor to political empire would have been most inconceivable.

Fifteen hundred years later, the possibility of religious empire was plainly seen. Militant Christians who had expelled the Moors from the Iberian peninsula were eager to win new souls for Christ. Alexander VI had issued a papal bull in 1493 dividing the newly discovered lands outside Europe between Spain and Portugal on condition that they convert the people of those lands to Christianity. A plausible scenario, given Europe's destined expansion of influence, was that the Roman church would eventually rule the entire world. It did not happen. Although Jesuit priests supported by the Spanish and Portuguese colonial governments converted the native peoples of Latin America to the Roman Catholic religion, similar efforts in the Far East failed when the Chinese and Japanese governments expelled Christian missionaries in the 17th century. Europe itself became religiously divided during the period of the Protestant Reformation. Despite the Pope's declaration, the French, Dutch, and English colonized North America; they seemed more interested in obtaining commercial advantages than in spreading the Christian religion. The times were turning away from religious ambition and instead embracing such things as commerce, science and technology, literature and music.
So it would seem that would-be predictors of the larger trends would consistently have been frustrated had they foreseen world history as a logical progression from things in the past. New institutions and new sets of concerns arise to replace those known in the past; and it seems that the future will gravitate more towards what has never been than what was. Of what use, then, is history in predicting the future?

All we can say is that history is our main source of knowledge about how the world works in concrete situations. Political leaders charged with making important decisions often let historical analogies guide their decision making process. For instance, Harry Truman wrote in his autobiography that he saw a parallel between the Congressional "Committee on the Conduct of War" established during the U.S. Civil War, which became a center of espionage for the Confederacy, and a similar investigating committee which he chaired during World War II. He therefore took extra precautions to make sure that this committee did not leak valuable information to the Nazis. "Almost all current events in the affairs of governments and nations have their parallels and precedents in the past," Truman wrote. "I know of no surer way to get a solid foundation in political science and public administration than to study the histories of past administrations."

General Jakabu Gowan, Nigeria's head of state during the war with secessionist Biafra, had read Carl Sandberg's four-volume biography of Abraham Lincoln. Identifying his own cause with that of the North, Gowan told reporters that he could recognize the "Shermans" and the "Grants" among his commanders. On the other hand, Adolf Hitler was mistakenly encouraged by President Franklin D. Roosevelt's death to hope that the Allies might relax their military pressure upon his crumbling nation because his hero, Frederick the Great of Prussia, had been rescued from probable defeat when Russian armies pulled back following the death of Catherine the Great. Such analogies may or may not follow through.

To predict history on the broadest level we cannot rely upon any particular set of events proceeding from the present situation but only on general expectations based on the nature of human societies like the following: What goes up usually comes down. What is born dies. People fight for rank and position. Powerful interest groups try to protect their own turf. These are some of the "lessons" to be drawn from past history. On the positive side, the new is youthful and vigorous and creative, but also unpredictable. One must make allowance for unexpected paradigm shifts. Future history will frustrate our best efforts to project a certain vision unless, perhaps, we ourselves participate in the fulfilling events.

From THISTLEROSE PUBLICATIONS

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Sunday

What is future

The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different.

Peter Drucker

Tuesday

Unannounced


"The future has a way of arriving unannounced".


Monday

To know the present

We do not know enough about how the present will lead into the future.

Gregory Bateson
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Sunday

Who holds the future


I don't know what the future may hold, but I know who holds the future.
Ralph Abernathy
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Process of change

The meaning of a simple object, or a particular word, is always in the process of change.

Moreover, the significance of a past change can only be appreciated from the future and, of course, that 'future' is itself implicated in a similar process of transformation were it ever to be capable of becoming 'present'. The future is hence not just a future that will become present, but the future that makes all 'presence' possible and also impossible.There can be no presence-to-self, or self-contained identity, because the 'nature' of our temporal existence is for this type of experience to elude us. According to Derrida, our predominant mode of being is what he will eventually term the messianic...

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Thursday

Unpredictable future


Modernism is a term used to lump together an enormous body of artistic work in all forms--poetry, cinema, painting, architecture--that was produced roughly between the 1890s and the mid 20th century.


General definitions are difficult, but modernist work tends to be formally experimental and highly self conscious--think of the Cubist paintings of Picasso or the 'flow of consciousness' of James Joyce's novels. So we must emphasise dislocation and fragmentation as characteristics of modernism. The 'high period' of modernism from 1900-1930 was of course a time of unmatched upheaval, in which the promises of the bourgeois revolution were finally shattered by war, slump and workers' revolt. The accelerating development of technology and the penetration of mass production techniques into every sphere of life added to a deep sense of uncertainty.


European modernism in the first years of this century thus flowered in the space between a still usable classical past, a still indeterminate technical present and a still unpredictable political future...
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Tuesday

Travel in time


We want to totally escape the grip of gravity and inertia.


We want to be able to transport ourselves or other objects by dematerializing at one spot and reappearing at another; we want to be able to completely conceal and cloak our vehicle as in a big space ship.We want to be able to travel in time, so as to see the full sweep of the past and the future; we want control over everything that we see; we want to become immortal, omnipotent, and omniscient, insofar as possible; we want to be in the presence of and commune with the Universe; and we want a full escape from the vagaries of sickness, accident, and war.

We truly want to live a human existence.
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Wednesday

Foreknowledge


Boethius, one of the most important intermediaries between ancient philosophy and the Latin Middle Ages, puts forward an argument, based on God's foreknowledge of future events, which threatens to show that even mental acts of willing are determined and so unfree.

He proposes the argument in two formulations:

If God sees all things and can in no way be mistaken, then there necessarily happens what he by providence will have foreseen will be.

If things are capable of turning out differently from how they have been foreseen, then there will no longer be firm foreknowledge of the future, but rather uncertain opinion.

Since it is accepted that God is omniscient, and that this implies that he knows what every future event—including mental events such as volitions—will be, and each seem to rule out any sort of freedom of the will requisite for attributing moral responsibility: a consequence the disastrous implications of which Boethius the character vividly describes.

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