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Showing posts with label uncertain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uncertain. Show all posts

Tuesday

More order than exists

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us.

"Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature."

Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know.

The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Download ebooks on http://www.frenchtheory.com/ - See that post with different algorithms in metabole - See the journal French Metablog with today different posts -

Sunday

Unpredictable Hypertext

If we consider the act of writing a hypertextual document from a rhetorical perspective, the author faces the classic issue of definition of purpose, but must align the new potential for contextualization or decontextualization due to the capabilities of hypertext technology.

The ways to move through data are essentially similar to what they have always been, but the speed and ease at which connections or digressions may occur, cause renewed consideration of the intent of the author and the power the author is able to exercise in trying to communicate a particular conclusion to an audience by using traditional forms of hierarchical thought.

In fact, the word "digression" which means to depart from, often carries the connotation of an unfortunate move to a less important topic. I prefer to use the term sidegression, particularly when referring to hypertextual moves, because they often provide important contextual clues or may bring to the reader information which is pertinent in light of that reader's path. If an author cannot always predict what group of information will be sufficient for a particular reader to "get" a concept, then the tendency toward hierarchical arrangement of information can be relaxed. After all, is one part of the information really more important than another? It is most likely that an author, in the course of exploring a topic, takes many paths, u-turns, sidegressions, to come to a conclusion. In an effort to facilitate the journey for others, an author (authority) tries to organize information so that a reader can reach the same destination more easily. But, it is likely that despite the efforts of the author, the reader must still negotiate their own perfectly imperfect path.
Exploration of a topic on the Web clearly demonstrates the perfectly imperfect paths that readers take. When teaching freshman composition, I have in-class exercises where I tell my students to locate information about a topic by surfing the Web. Rarely do two students make the same series of moves, but often they end up at the same sites regardless of their level of surfing experience.

Some hypertext theorists take an extreme view of the notion that readers should be expected to move by example or paradigm. A group of theorists calling themselves only "The Critical Art Ensemble" argue,

the tyranny of paradigms may have some useful consequences (such as greater efficiency within the paradigm), but the repressive costs to the individual (excluding other modes of thinking and reducing the possibility of invention) are too high. Rather than being led by sequences of signs, one should instead drift through them, choosing the interpretation best suited to the social conditions of a given situation . 8

Again, paralogic hermeneutics is remarkably prepared to agree. Kent states that the piece of communication (icon, sentence, utterance) is forever separated from the consequence of its existence. Kent revisits Derrida on this subject:

Our inability to reduce every use of language to one hermeneutic strategy come about because of the iterability of the sign or sentence; as Derrida phrases it, 'the sign possesses the characteristic of being readable even if the moment of its production is irrevocably lost and even if I do not know what its alleged author-scriptor consciously intended to say at the moment he wrote it, i.e., abandoned it to its essential drift'.

Download ebooks on http://www.frenchtheory.com/ - See that post with different algorithms in metabole - See the journal French Metablog with today different posts -

What is future

The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different.

Peter Drucker

Wednesday

Foreknowledge


Boethius, one of the most important intermediaries between ancient philosophy and the Latin Middle Ages, puts forward an argument, based on God's foreknowledge of future events, which threatens to show that even mental acts of willing are determined and so unfree.

He proposes the argument in two formulations:

If God sees all things and can in no way be mistaken, then there necessarily happens what he by providence will have foreseen will be.

If things are capable of turning out differently from how they have been foreseen, then there will no longer be firm foreknowledge of the future, but rather uncertain opinion.

Since it is accepted that God is omniscient, and that this implies that he knows what every future event—including mental events such as volitions—will be, and each seem to rule out any sort of freedom of the will requisite for attributing moral responsibility: a consequence the disastrous implications of which Boethius the character vividly describes.

See the journal French Metablog with today different posts
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