Citi's Mark Mahaney, who was already bullish on the e-book reader, declares that is indeed going to be Amazon's iPod.
In practical terms, that means that Mahaney has gone back and revisited his original estimates from this spring. He now thinks Amazon (AMZN) will sell 378,000 units this year, double his initial guess. And he thinks instead of being a $750 million business that accounts for 3% of the company's sales next year, the Kindle will be a $1.1 billion business that accounts for 4%.
What's changed? No specific data, Mahaney says, because getting real numbers out of Amazon is impossible, and the supply chain is pretty tightly wrapped, as well.
But he's seen lots of little data points: Better reviews of the device on Amazon, the fact that it remains on top of Amazon's best-seller list, etc. And he's also swayed by TechCrunch's recent report pegging sales of the device so far at 240,000. Take note, J-school seminars -- the following comes from a well-regarded Wall Street analyst:
We acknowledge being “out-sourced” by TechCrunch. But we believe the 240K number was well-sourced and believe reports of 40,000 shipments a month may also be reasonable.
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